Select Group
| Market | Market % | Model % | Gap | Signal | Trend | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Trump Impeached Before Term Ends Resolves Jan 20, 2029 |
62% | 41% | −21% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | $1.91M |
Democrat Sweep — 2026 Midterms Both House + Senate |
50% | 34% | −16% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | High |
Democrats Win the House 2026 Nov 3, 2026 midterms |
82% | 78% | −4% | Fair Value | → Stable | High |
Democrats Win the Senate 2026 Structural map challenge |
51% | 44% | −7% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | High |
| Market | Market % | Model % | Gap | Signal | Trend | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Peru — Fujimori Wins Runoff Jun 7, 2026 — LIVE TODAY |
61% | 68% | +7% | Underreacting | ↓ Receding | High |
Iranian Regime Falls by Jun 30 Core structures must dissolve |
8% | 5% | −3% | Slight Overreaction | → Stable | $48.9M |
Democratic 2028 Presidential Nominee Gavin Newsom leading at 25% |
25% | 22% | −3% | Fair Value | → Stable | High |
| Market | Market % | Model % | Gap | Signal | Trend | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Zero Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 FOMC holds all year |
75% | 82% | +7% | Underreacting | → Stable | High |
US Recession by End of 2026 NBER definition |
19% | 24% | +5% | Underreacting | ↓ Receding | $5.6M |
Fed Jun 16-17 — No Change 96% hold, CPI still high |
96% | 97% | +1% | Fair Value | → Stable | High |
| Market | Market % | Model % | Gap | Signal | Trend | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NVIDIA Largest Company End of June $5T+ market cap |
91% | 87% | −4% | Overreacting | → Stable | High |
AI Bubble Burst by Dec 31, 2026 30%+ sustained correction |
22% | 17% | −5% | Overreacting | → Stable | $3M |
OpenAI IPO Before 2027 73% probability Dec 31 |
73% | 65% | −8% | Overreacting | → Stable | $2M |
| Market | Market % | Model % | Gap | Signal | Trend | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Best AI Model End of June — Anthropic LMArena leaderboard |
83% | 76% | −7% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | $11.58M |
SpaceX IPO Above $1T Market Cap Jun 11 pricing |
99% | 97% | −2% | Fair Value | ↑ Rising | High |
OpenAI Announces AGI Before 2027 Narrow definition |
13% | 8% | −5% | Overreacting | → Stable | $78.3K |
AI Data Center Moratorium Before 2027 US federal bill |
86% | 78% | −8% | Overreacting | → Stable | $56K |
| Market | Market % | Our Model % | Gap | Signal | Since Jun 2 | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US × Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Dec 31, 2026 |
72% | 54% | −18% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | $460M+ |
US Announces Ceasefire Extension by Jul 31, 2026 |
65% | 71% | +6% | Underreacting | ↓ Receding | $25.6M |
US × Iran Nuclear Deal by Jun 30, 2026 |
32% | 11% | −21% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | $527M+ |
Ceasefire Extension by Jun 30 formal announcement |
43% | 48% | +5% | Underreacting | → Stable | $25.6M |
| Market | Market % | Our Model % | Gap | Signal | Since Jun 2 | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US × Iran Nuclear Deal by Jun 30, 2026 |
32% | 11% | −21% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | $527M+ |
US × Iran Permanent Peace Deal by Dec 31, 2026 |
72% | 54% | −18% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | $460M+ |
US Announces Ceasefire Extension by Jul 31, 2026 |
65% | 71% | +6% | Underreacting | ↓ Receding | $25.6M |
Ceasefire Extension by Jun 30 formal announcement |
43% | 48% | +5% | Underreacting | → Stable | $25.6M |
| Market | Market % | Model % | Gap | Signal | Trend | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 Ranks #2 Hottest Year Below 2025, above historical |
59% | 64% | +5% | Underreacting | → Stable | $2.4M |
Hantavirus Pandemic in 2026 No H2H transmission |
6% | 3% | −3% | Fair Value | → Stable | High |
Named Storm Before Hurricane Season Early tropical activity |
40% | 35% | −5% | Overreacting | → Stable |
| Market | Market % | Model % | Gap | Signal | Trend | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OpenAI IPO Before Dec 31, 2026 Non-profit conversion barrier |
73% | 61% | −12% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | $2M |
SpaceX IPO — $1.5T-2T range Day-1 pricing range |
45% | 38% | −7% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | High |
Anthropic Best AI Model End Jun LMArena leaderboard |
83% | 76% | −7% | Overreacting | ↑ Rising | $11.58M |
AI Bubble Burst by Dec 31 30%+ sustained correction |
22% | 17% | −5% | Overreacting | → Stable | $3M |
| # | Market | Market % | Model % | |Gap| | Signal | Trend | Volume |
|---|
Free Advanced market intelligence platform. We compare our model's probability estimates against Polymarket crowd odds to identify mispriced markets. Covers 9 categories: Sports, Geopolitics, Politics, Elections, Economy, Finance, Tech, Weather and Trending.
Full FIFA World Cup 2026 group stage predictor covering all 48 teams and 72 matches. Spain rated 90/100 (FIFA rank 1, reigning European champions). France 89/100. Argentina 86/100 (defending world champions). England 82/100. Brazil 74/100 (Neymar injury doubt, Rodrygo ACL confirmed out). Portugal 79/100. Morocco 76/100 (2022 semi-finalists). Germany 74/100. Group stage runs June 11 to June 27 2026 across USA, Mexico and Canada.
US Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 2026: Polymarket 72%, our model 54%, gap minus 18 percent, market overreacting. US Iran nuclear deal by June 30 2026: Polymarket 32%, our model 11%, gap minus 21 percent. US announces ceasefire extension by July 31: Polymarket 65%, our model 71%, market underreacting. Total Polymarket volume on Iran markets exceeds 1 billion dollars.
Trump impeachment before term ends: Polymarket 62%, our model 41%, gap minus 21 percent, market overreacting by conflating Democrat House win with impeachment probability. Democrat sweep of both House and Senate 2026 midterms: Polymarket 50%, our model 34%, market overreacting. Democrats win House: 82% market, 78% model. Democrats win Senate: 51% market, 44% model.
Peru presidential runoff June 7 2026: Fujimori at 61% Polymarket, our model 68%, market underreacting. Iranian regime falls by June 30: 8% Polymarket, 5% our model, 48.9 million dollars volume.
Zero Fed rate cuts in 2026: Polymarket 75%, our model 82%, market underreacting to inflation. April 2026 CPI 3.8 percent year on year, energy up 17.9 percent. US recession by end 2026: Polymarket 19%, our model 24%. Fed June 16-17 FOMC meeting: 96% probability of no change.
NVIDIA largest company end of June 2026: Polymarket 91%, our model 87%, 5 trillion dollar market cap. AI bubble burst by December 31 2026: Polymarket 22%, our model 17%. Best AI model end of June 2026: Anthropic 83%, Google 12%, OpenAI 4%, 11.58 million dollars volume. SpaceX IPO June 11 2026: roadshow starts June 8, pricing June 11, 1.75 trillion dollar target valuation, ticker SPCX. OpenAI IPO before December 31 2026: Polymarket 73%, our model 61%, market overreacting.
2026 ranks as second hottest year on record: Polymarket 59%, our model 64%, market underreacting to El Nino transition. 2025 was the hottest year on record at 1.54 degrees above pre-industrial baseline. Hantavirus pandemic in 2026: Polymarket 6%, our model 3%, no human to human transmission possible.
Trust The Monkeys uses a composite scoring model drawing on news sentiment analysis, historical base rates, expert forecasts, scenario classification and similar case retrieval. For sports: FIFA rankings, qualifying performance, squad strength, recent form, surprise results and tournament pedigree. For markets: Polymarket probability data, volume, historical price movements and resolution criteria. The mispricing scanner ranks all active markets by absolute gap between crowd probability and model estimate. Rising means gap is widening, market and model diverging. Stable means no change. Receding means gap narrowing, converging.